Tony Payan, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Center for the United States and Mexico at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. His most recent book is, “U.S.-Mexico Relations: Structuring Alternative Futures.” The US-Mexico relationship is very complicated in the areas of climate, migration, security and trade. Mexico is the US’s largest trading partner with trade at almost $850 billion a year. Candidate Donald Trump threatened to put a 200% tariff on John Deere tractors produced in Mexico. Generally, any tariff will be paid by the customer and raise the purchase price, increase the inflation rate and could lead to a Smoot-Hawley international recession or depression, whereas selective tariffs can be helpful in some cases. Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum does not have a strong team; whereas Donald Trump may have the same problem, or a brain drain of expertise, if he fires more than 50,0000 knowledgeable professional public administrators.
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